1. 安检只是排除了一些几乎可以忽略不计的威胁,但是但是其排除的潜在威胁是难以估计的,就是说有很多的潜在破坏分子会由于安检的存在不敢携带危险品上车。
基本思路:我们不能根据现在的状况来判断潜在的状况。因为这样一定会低估“地铁安检”的价值和作用。
Eg: The threat of having their shipments rejected deters many cheese exporters from shipping substandard product. The argument is inadequate in that it attempts to assess how a certain change will affect potential members of a group by only providing evidence about its effect on the current members.
2. Past experience most of the time cannot be used to predict future event unless there is a direct corelation. In this case, the teaching positions are more than before is far from enough to say that the same pattern will repeat in the future. For example, can we say: It rains a lot last year. So it will rain a lot this year. No! Unless we are given a relationship: last year it rains a lot because of XX condition. This year the XX condition will repeat and therefore it will also rain a lot.
3. 通过一份报告指出这个决定的公正性,前提应该是“这个报告本身是公正的”。
4. 看到“not”→取非→S/W
5. 时间矛盾题,重点看时间突变段及前后的特征变化。
6. Market saturation多种思维变体
SM: S↑ D → P↑
UM: S↑ D → P↑
Eg: Few if any of the RDS radio stations that began broadcasting in Verdland after 1994 broadcast to people with RDS-equipped radios living in areas not previously reached by RDS stations.
7. Known risks can be weighted against known benefits. Unknown risks cannot be measured or compared.
Risk can be good or bad. Risks/Costs < Benefits→ Accept
8. Long-term benefits
长尾效应:多次,反复的消费(封闭产业链)
9. 部分否定/肯定一般是错误选项,只能解释部分结果,但不足以解释一般情况。
Eg: some, heavy coffee drinkers …not representative
10. Pay attention to KEY WORDS:
Limited funds (choose the best one; start up costs cannot be too high to afford), luxury, serious
11. 人的趋利性行为
12. Profit=Price*Quantity 隐形分析
13. Always focus on conclusion. 关注你的解题目的(目标)
Eg: anthropology principle
Though extremely varied, still have some non-changing features
Though have considerable contact with modern societies, still some features not shared with other cultures
14. any, all等绝对性结论←weaken:举一个反例即可(in some cases)
15. “regularly”: link the example to the generalization with an assumption (general premise)
16. % increase/decrease ≠ absolute number increase/decrease %*Q=absolute number
17. weaken→analogy→point out the dissimilarity among cases (not comparable)
18. 抓住要解决的问题,排除不相关干扰项:features? amount? Who? Present vs. Future?
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